A few years back I made a really nice return buying Netflix stock, but had I held on it would have been a grand slam. Instead I sold it and bought Apple because I love companies that make boatloads of money, pay dividends, and have awesome products. I've done pretty well with Apple, but Netflix has increased in value 600% since I sold. Ouch.
But I just don't get the valuation on Netflix. They seem to release new shows by the hundreds, yet the buzz is limited to a few hits like Stranger Things, 13 Reasons Why, and a few others. I'm a huge Marvel Comics fan, and I'm already burnt out on the Marvel shows they release. The main reason for this is that they've sucked.
Netflix releases their entire seasons at once, which is a terrible idea. It's impossible to build buzz because no one knows if it's safe to talk about a show with anyone else. I may have seen 1 episode and my friend watched the whole season. So we can't chat, which means we can't help build buzz.
Coming from a guy who has a merch perspective I know that the value of merch isn't just the revenue driven, it's the fact that the merch helps drive awareness. But when the show gets released all at once and no one can talk about it the window to sell merch is super limited. Stranger Things sells a lot of merch, but nowhere near what it would if it were on AMC.
Netflix has a ridiculous amount of shows and most of them have zero buzz. At this point when I see the Netflix brand on a show it feels like the generic aisle in the supermarket from back when I was a kid. Remember the aisle with all the stuff in white packaging with black letters.
I literally was looking for a way to sort out the Netflix owned shows from my display. Maybe I'm the minority here, but I predict Netflix will see a precipitous decline unless they fix this problem. And to me the easiest way to fix the problem would be to release shows one week at a time in the traditional method. It seems to be working for Hulu with Handmaid's Tale. That show got so much buzz my wife and I joined Hulu. She's hooked. I find the pace to be too slow and I get restless while we are watching. But the key thing is we're watching.